Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.930175 1.085531 1.258505 1.465347 1.705975 1.977113 2.305904
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.670189 0.873310 1.125034 1.459846 1.893617 2.436905 3.169748
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.537020 0.757025 1.051287 1.473498 2.064026 2.861342 4.021355
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.429543 0.645577 0.953037 1.422260 2.120701 3.123041 4.673768
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.390164 0.619664 0.964224 1.518752 2.389577 3.706576 5.854613
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.327833 0.547124 0.892533 1.475570 2.436207 3.958915 6.562827
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.277170 0.484007 0.824389 1.424513 2.457609 4.166868 7.218737
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.237512 0.432530 0.766752 1.380262 2.480127 4.373420 7.891586
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.215755 0.408589 0.751800 1.405937 2.623789 4.798962 8.993973
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.206518 0.405734 0.773109 1.498436 2.897542 5.484378 10.650211
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.192099 0.390838 0.769917 1.543889 3.087994 6.038317 12.128394
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.175626 0.369466 0.751313 1.556330 3.214876 6.484817 13.451344
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.157936 0.343670 0.721670 1.544815 3.296735 6.861906 14.703695
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.142668 0.320889 0.695352 1.537058 3.386342 7.267984 16.076409
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.131224 0.304685 0.680486 1.551319 3.523906 7.789244 17.762582
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.115743 0.277170 0.637454 1.497384 3.503836 7.969268 18.718159
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.113434 0.279743 0.661577 1.598943 3.848562 8.994235 21.727287
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.101290 0.257127 0.625016 1.553494 3.844377 9.227485 22.914552
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.090082 0.235200 0.587186 1.499755 3.812833 9.392184 23.957224
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.080590 0.216257 0.554089 1.453180 3.792508 9.580436 25.081970
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.076009 0.209420 0.550172 1.480203 3.961846 10.254125 27.527543
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.075209 0.212565 0.572094 1.577561 4.326590 11.463455 31.527417
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.072033 0.208756 0.575348 1.625401 4.565804 12.378692 34.862770